Over a 20-year period, the number of adults living with serious illness in Ontario is expected to nearly double, warns a new report from the University of Toronto.
The study led by the university’s Dalla Lana School of Public Health, released in collaboration with the Ontario Hospital Association, finds that millions more Ontarians will be living with a chronic disease by 2040.
The study projects that 3.1 million adults will live with serious illness in Ontario in 2040, compared to 1.8 million in 2020.
The study authors also predict that about one in four adults over the age of 30 will live with a serious illness in 2040, requiring significant hospital care, compared to about one in eight individuals in 2002.
“As we look to the future, it is clear that Ontario has reached a turning point,” said Anthony Dale, President and CEO of the Ontario Hospital Association. “Ontario’s health system is already grappling with rapid population growth, increasingly complex health needs and intense pressures on existing capacity. These results confirm that maintaining the status quo is not an option. Health care in Ontario needs an innovation revolution. Without this, the system will not be able to cope.”
In addition to the increasing number of people living with serious illnesses, researchers predict that the number of illnesses an individual will live with will also increase significantly.
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They say the conditions expected to increase the most in number are those that increase with age, including osteoarthritis, diabetes and cancer.
Researchers say having multiple chronic illnesses is a major factor in demand for health services and costs hospitals money.
“Planning for sustainable and equitable health care that responds to emerging trends requires projections of what chronic disease rates are likely to be in the future,” said Adalsteinn Brown, dean of the Dalla Lana School of Public Health and co-author of the study.
“Our projections suggest that more Ontarians will be living with serious illness and that the number of cases of many chronic diseases will increase. Given these results, it is clear that new solutions are needed now, including significant efforts in the prevention and management of chronic diseases.
The study, Projected Patterns of Illness in Ontario, represents the most recent comprehensive public report to quantify chronic disease and multimorbidity in the Ontario population.
Researchers looked at factors such as age- and gender-specific population projections as well as historical chronic disease trends to model population disease burden in the future.
Canadians are living longer, with life expectancy increasing to 81.5 years between 2020 and 2022, which researchers say contributes significantly to the estimated increases, as well as the underlying structural and social determinants of health and an increase in risk factors for chronic diseases.
Ontario’s population is also expected to grow by 36 per cent over the next 20 years, with the largest increase occurring in the 65 and older age group.
The study calls on Ontario’s health system to take immediate action and “dynamically focus on the prevention, early detection and effective treatment of chronic diseases.”
The study also calls on Ontario to develop a long-term health services capacity plan, so the province can meet the needs of its aging and rapidly growing population, and expand services that support and encourage older people to age at home.
“Over the past several decades, it is biomedical and technological innovation that has led to clinical improvements, cost savings and improved access to hospital-based care,” Dale said.
“And today, artificial intelligence, gene therapy and personalized medicine demonstrate astonishing potential. By working together and embracing innovation in all its forms, we can create a future with fewer diseases, better treatments and universal access to care. It is within our reach. »
